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Are you tired of the heated and unproductive debate about Estimates vs. #NoEstimates? Today, it is clear polarization and division have overtaken the discussion. This is sad because #NoEstimates and Estimates work brilliantly when used correctly. So there is no reason for the heated arguments among Agile development enthusiasts. Smart Guess Agile expert and teacher review the scene, suggest moving beyond propaganda, and discuss avoiding the NoEstimates trap. 

You can find hundreds of similar tweets by searching for ['#NoEstimates estimator'](https://twitter.com/search?q=%23NoEstimates%20estimator&src=typed_query) on Twitter. 

## 3. Personal attacks rather than discussing the case
Another fallacy frequently used is attacking the person rather than discussing the case, i.e. [Ad hominem fallacy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ad_hominem). 


## 4. Research shows repeating false statements make people believe
As covered in the posts a. [Debunking 'estimates never work'](https://smartguess.is/blog/debunking-estimates-never-work/) and b. [#NoEstimates straw man fallacy](https://smartguess.is/blog/no-estimates-straw-man-fallacy/). Few key #NoEstimates proponents are knowingly repeating false claims that 'estimates don't work.' In the following Wikipedia article on [Illusory truth effect](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Illusory_truth_effect), it says that:
> researchers discovered that familiarity can overpower rationality and that repetitively hearing a certain fact is wrong can affect the hearer's beliefs.

There are hundreds (likely thousands) of tweets under the #NoEstimates hashtag on Twitter, claiming *"estimates never work"* or/and using the *"straw man fallacy"*. We see in these examples proponents are *"selectively presenting facts to encourage a particular synthesis or perception"*, [Wikipedia definition of Propaganda](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Propaganda).


## In summary - is Propaganda used to advance #NoEstimates?
Based on the facts presented and methods used, the content manufactured to provoke and maintain the fire and the actions of the few proponents behind this. It is clear, quoting [Wikipedia's definition of Propaganda](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Propaganda), we are seeing Propaganda used to:

> *" influence an audience and further an agenda"*

## Why is Propaganda used?
Why do we see Propaganda used to further the #NoEstimates agenda? 

### Selling books and services
It happens to be the case the few key proponents using these methods are selling books and services around the #NoEstimates theme - so this might have an impact. 

### Is the world a better place without estimates?
Another factor is the *belief the world might be a better place without estimates*. To make this claim, #NoEstimates proponents have created many posts, some of which contain the phrase ["#NoEstimates death march"](https://twitter.com/search?q=%23NoEstimates%20death%20march&src=typed_query&f=top).

I might need another post to explain the problem with this argument. In short, this is like saying we should ban knives, credit cards, etc. Because they can be used with negative consequences, let's keep in mind the tools themselves have no "agenda." It's always in the hands of the person using the tool to use it wisely. Therefore you can't claim tools such as knives, credit cards, or estimates are always bad. People making this claim are fighting the wrong battle.

Are we heading towards a future where we can't decide what tools or methods we use? 

Screenshot 2021-11-16 at 17.35.35.png

## Moving beyond Propaganda
I think our future lies beyond the authoritarian world current propaganda is bringing us. While tools provide value, people will continue using them. Both estimates and no estimates provide value when used correctly. 

Shouldn't people have the freedom to decide what method or tools they use without ridicule, personal attacks, provocative false claims, and random confrontations?

## You shape the future
Each and everyone in the industry can make an impact. You have a choice, take the:
- **Blue pill** - If you want the #NoEstimates Propaganda to continue - do nothing. 
- **Red pill** - If you want the #NoEstimates Propaganda to stop - then read on
 
Share this post when you see the following behaviors: 
1. People repeating false claims, using polarizing content to grab attention 
2. People discriminating against others for using estimates
3. Personal attacks rather than discussing the case. 

As a last resort, stop following people showing behavior you don't want to see.

 It's that simple, until next time, cheers!

Like, retweet, or share your thoughts on Twitter about this topic.

**About Smart Guess** 
*We help teams educate stakeholders by providing actionable answers to common misconceptions about estimates. So more teams can use estimates to their advantage, and fewer are held accountable for delivering on impossible deadlines.*

Is propaganda used to further the #NoEstimates agenda?


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