Hashing out different opions of NoEstimates 

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Stuck in the Estimates vs. No Estimates debate? See why a black-and-white stance is harmful and learn how to create a balanced Agile estimation strategy.


In this post, I will cover why taking this stance is harmful, cover what kind of interactions are feeding the fire, and ask what's the purpose of claiming Estimates are always bad.

## Why is the black-and-white stance considered harmful
Many who actively take part in the discussions, [Ron Jeffries](https://ronjeffries.com/articles/019-01ff/estimation-again/Index.html), [Your Daily Scrum podcast](https://youtu.be/YKYiFK-FJyQ?t=462), [Peter Kretzman](https://twitter.com/PeterKretzman/status/1450867463931908103?s=20) and others openly agree that keeping the discussions on these negative terms is not helpful. Let's cover why that is and what's the impact.

Let's start by looking up how leadership is defined. [On Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leadership) it says that leadership is:
> ..a practical skill encompassing the ability of an individual, group or organization to "lead," influence or guide other individuals, teams, or entire organizations. 

Being a leader means followers support your cause. Followers look to their leader for guidance and take on or repeat their behavior in some ways. That is why people in leadership positions need to acknowledge their role and live up to the responsibility that comes with it. 

For this reason, it is: 
- **critical leaders on both sides** of the discussion take care **how they act and what they say** 

Why, you might ask? 
- **Because leaders influence their followers and shape what kind of interactions take place!**

So when some of the key leaders of the #NoEstimates movement show the following behavior repeatedly, it fuels the fire:

1. [Claiming "estimates never work"](https://smartguess.is/blog/debunking-estimates-never-work/), i.e. [Faulty generalization](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Faulty_generalization) fallacy
2. [Using examples of how not to estimate](https://smartguess.is/blog/no-estimates-straw-man-fallacy/) to support claims that "estimates don't work", i.e., making a [Straw man fallacy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Straw_man) 

### Why is this harmful?
It is harmful because when leaders show this kind of behavior, what happens is that followers take up the false claims, the aggressive tone, and the attitude their leaders display. This further damages the discussion and divides people. As seen all over online forums where followers make the same false claims, it seems to pick a fight.

Let's take a short example to explain the impact. A few months back, I read a post on Reddit about estimates, with lots of comments, and lively discussions. There were at least 4-5 comments (around 10-15%) from users picking a fight adding comments along the line, you know, 'estimates don't work,' essentially ridiculing the use of estimates. Given the response these comments got, it is clear many have grown tired of these arguments, and so much time is being wasted on unproductive discussions. 

So what kind of messages are feeding the fire? 

## What kind of messages are feeding the fire? 
When looking for answers to why so many in the software development community are making this claim, I came across tweets from Vasco Duarte, author of the #NoEstimates book. Vasco released the book in 2016 and is highly active on Twitter under the #NoEstimates hashtag. Nearly every day, Vasco posts multiple tweets under the #NoEstimates hashtag. His tweets are created to grab attention, dismissing the value of estimates and ridiculing people who use them. Seeing the following tweet, I wondered if he thought estimates never work, so I asked the following question to understand where he stood on the topic:

I thought Vasco's answer was quite positive because he is accepting it's valuable to have a tool '..allowing teams to make decisions about options that come up during backlog discussions'. In addition, he does not deny estimates provide answers.

To confirm this understanding, I followed up and asked:

What Vasco is saying is that estimates:
1. only work for people who use estimates for "..blaming, pressuring others, etc.." 
2. do not work "for containing costs or hitting a deadline"

Quickly browsing his tweets and looking for similar statements, Vasco is saying *estimates never work*.

**That is a bold statement.**

Why? Because logically making this claim takes only a single case, one example, where an estimate is used successfully to show statements making this claim are false. 

## What's next?
In the next post we will [Debunk the statement' estimates never work'](https://smartguess.is/blog/debunking-estimates-never-work/) and show how these claims are not true.


**About Smart Guess** 
*We help teams educate stakeholders by providing actionable answers to common misconceptions about estimates. So more teams can use estimates to their advantage, and fewer are held accountable for delivering on impossible deadlines.*


The Black-and-White #NoEstimates Stance Considered Harmful

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Every missed deadline has a cause. Every blown estimate has a reason. 

But without connecting the dots across sprints, you're experiencing the same problems over and over.

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How Many Sprints Before You Spot the Pattern?

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You Know It's a Bad Estimate. But Can You Prove It?

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Same Story Points. Different Outcomes. Why?

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You Run Planning Poker Every Sprint. What Happens to That Data?

Stakeholders add urgent work mid-sprint. You know it hurts delivery—but without concrete data, you can't quantify the damage or push back effectively.

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How Much Did That 'Quick Request' Actually Cost?

Story points tell you relative size. They don't tell you when something will ship. The gap between estimation and prediction is where promises break.

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Your Team Estimates. But Can You Actually Predict?

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Where Does Your Team's Time Actually Go?

Every retrospective, the same question: _"Why didn't we finish?"_ Without time-in-status data, you're debating opinions instead of analyzing facts.

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It's Been In QA For How Long?

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Why a Black-and-White #NoEstimates Approach is Considered Harmful in Agile

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