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Discover the origins of #NoEstimates in Agile, from a 2012 experiment to its impact on today’s view of estimates in software development.

## Why did the #NoEstimates discussion take off?
Thinking through this question, the discussion took off because (share your feedback if something is missing): 

1. **Polarizing Idea.** The idea of taking on software development without any estimates was and still is, for many, highly controversial. Since we started building software around 1950, estimating has been standard practice. So just hearing *No Estimates* in the context of software development was and still is a surprising and polarizing idea for many 
2. **#NoEstimates hashtag** perfectly captures the idea and grabs the attention
3. **Twitter and participation** in the discussion have been critical in spreading the word
4. **Estimates are tricky.** As with any tool, there are ways to use estimates correctly and incorrectly. In particular, estimates are tricky because the team needs to use them correctly. Also, they need to be presented so that they are interpreted correctly. Many have first-hand experiences where estimates were poorly applied. Therefore many are open to new ways of working 
5. **Humans are inspired by polarizing content.** We humans are more easily *inspired to anger*, see quote below, than by other emotions. 

Let's cover the last point better and put this into context with what kind of stories we humans are more likely to engage with. Recently, we heard about the [Facebook - whistleblower case from CBS - 60 minutes](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/facebook-whistleblower-frances-haugen-misinformation-public-60-minutes-2021-10-03/). In this case, Frances Haugen explained how Facebook's algorithms pick out the content we see: 

> consequences of how Facebook is picking out that content today is it is -- optimizing for content that gets engagement, or reaction. But its own research is showing that content that is hateful, that is divisive, that is polarizing, it's easier to inspire people to anger than it is to other emotions. 

So many things were aligned for the idea to get attention, and it caught fire and grabbed attention!

## Where does the #NoEstimates discussion stand today?
Today the #NoEstimates discussions have taken a different and darker tone almost nine years later. As many who take part in the debate, such as [Ron Jeffries](https://ronjeffries.com/articles/019-01ff/estimation-again/Index.html), [Your Daily Scrum podcast](https://youtu.be/YKYiFK-FJyQ?t=462) and [Peter Kretzman](https://twitter.com/PeterKretzman/status/1450867463931908103?s=20) agree on. To quote what Ron is saying about this, there is a lot of *"unproductive discussion"*, *"unreasoned-name calling,"* and "ad-hominem arguments." In my mind, this kind of discussion is simply a waste of time.

One part of what fuels this fire is #NoEstimates proponents, who have stepped in with a more aggressive black-and-white stance on the topic, claiming that estimates are always bad. Even though Woody openly shares that:

Next post dives into how come the [aggressive black and white stance on NoEstimates is harmful](https://smartguess.is/blog/black-and-white-noestimates-stance-considered-harmful/).

**About Smart Guess** 
*We help teams educate stakeholders by providing actionable answers to common misconceptions about estimates. So more teams can use estimates to their advantage, and fewer are held accountable for delivering on impossible deadlines.*

How #NoEstimates Gained Popularity: The Rise of an Agile Movement

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Every missed deadline has a cause. Every blown estimate has a reason. 

But without connecting the dots across sprints, you're experiencing the same problems over and over.

We'd been underestimating integrations for 18 months. It was obvious once we could finally see it.

How Many Sprints Before You Spot the Pattern?

When stakeholders push for aggressive timelines, you feel the risk. 

But _"I think this is too ambitious"_ doesn't win arguments. Data does.

_"For the first time, I could show leadership exactly why their deadline was unrealistic—with numbers, not opinions."_

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You Know It's a Bad Estimate. But Can You Prove It?

Two 5-point stories. One takes 2 days, the other takes 2 weeks. Your team estimated them the same—but something made them wildly different. 

Without visibility into what, you'll keep guessing.

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Same Story Points. Different Outcomes. Why?

Dozens of estimation sessions per team. Hundreds of data points. All of it disappears the moment the meeting ends. What if that data could actually improve your predictions?

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You Run Planning Poker Every Sprint. What Happens to That Data?

Stakeholders add urgent work mid-sprint. You know it hurts delivery—but without concrete data, you can't quantify the damage or push back effectively.

_"Now I can show exactly how much longer planned work takes when we interrupt it with urgent requests. The conversations have changed completely."_

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How Much Did That 'Quick Request' Actually Cost?

Story points tell you relative size. They don't tell you when something will ship. The gap between estimation and prediction is where promises break.

_"We went from 'probably next month' to '85% confidence by March 15th.' Leadership finally trusts our timelines."_

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Your Team Estimates. But Can You Actually Predict?

Issues sit in "In Review" for days. Blockers hide in "Waiting for Info" for weeks. 

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Where Does Your Team's Time Actually Go?

Every retrospective, the same question: _"Why didn't we finish?"_ Without time-in-status data, you're debating opinions instead of analyzing facts.

_"Turns out our bottleneck wasn't development—it was code review. We never would have known without the data."_

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Stop Guessing Why Sprints Slip

Every process has blind spots. Time In Status reveals the delays your workflow has normalized—the ones nobody questions anymore.

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It's Been In QA For How Long?

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Turn Status History Into Process Insights

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The Rise of #NoEstimates: Why This Agile Idea Took Off

#NoEstimates

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