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Debunking the myth that estimates never work in Agile. Explore why some #NoEstimates proponents make false claims and learn how to avoid this pitfall.

I thought Vasco's answer below was quite positive because he accepts it's valuable to have a tool '..allowing teams to make decisions about options that come up during backlog discussions'. Because he says with a "..simple slicing heuristic.." you can achieve this value. Thereby accepting the value of the premise. To confirm this, I followed up and asked:

### #NoEstimates author in contradiction
By looking at Vasco's tweets above and the repeated tweets with the same message, Vasco completely dismisses the value of estimates. Yet in his book, chapter 5, *'1-2-3: Step by step towards # NoEstimates'*, under the heading *' Move to story points'* he says that: 
> **Story Point-based estimation gives a better understanding of how things like risk, complexity, expected dependencies for each Story**, etc. Given that a large amount of time it takes to deliver one Story is spent waiting, **Story Point estimation is more likely to help you assess the true impact of one Story in your project.**"

So Vasco clearly understands there is value in estimates, yet consistently contradicts this every time he claims estimates:
1. are helpful only for "..blaming, pressuring others, etc.." 
2. do not work "for containing costs or hitting a deadline"

This doesn't make sense, or does it? Let's touch on this question before we close. But let's first debunk Vasco's false statement many have been led to believe that: 'estimates never work.' 

## Debunking the claim that 'estimates never work'
Vasco and others repeating these claims don't realize they are logical fallacies. In the examples above, Vasco makes a [faulty generalization](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Faulty_generalization). Here is the example from Wikipedia and the #NoEstimates fallacy side by side:

```
If one sees only white swans, one may suspect that all swans are white.
If one only sees estimates used with bad intentions, one may suspect all estimates are used with bad intentions. 
```

To debunk the statement' estimates never work,' we only need a single case, one example, where an estimate is used successfully to show statements making this claim are false. Let's extend the story from the #NoEstimates book, and let's introduce Carmen, the main character in the book, to the following case:

 **Case Example: Carmen and her team identify a better solution using estimates**
> Through discussion with users and stakeholders, Carmen identifies a problem the team needs to tackle. During a sprint planning discussion, it becomes clear there are different options available.

> During the initial discussions Carmen had, a solution idea was identified that stakeholders thought made sense to go ahead with. Later during planning, the development team's discussed the problem and the proposed solution, solution A. The team estimated the work might be around 13 story points. They expected it would take a bit more than one sprint to complete. The reason was that there were some known unknowns and unknown unknowns, as always. Given their information, history, and velocity, Carmen and the team knew it would likely take 1-2 sprints to complete.

> During the meeting, the team identified a different approach. Let's call it solution B. Estimating solution B; the team expects it to be around eight-story points yet provide the same value. Given their velocity, the story will likely be completed within one sprint. This is because there were no 'known unknowns' about solution B, so the team is more confident about this estimate. In other words, they expect the estimate for solution B will have less deviation than the estimate for solution A.

> Based on these findings, Carmen and the team agree to implement solution B. In addition, Carmen will validate their thinking and present a quick mockup of the proposed solution to users and stakeholders who participated in the initial discussion. To ensure they didn't miss anything during the team discussion and validate the solution delivers the value they are after.

By making this single case, based on real examples, we can see the claim that "estimates never work" is false. Cases such as these have repeatedly come up during my 20+ year career as a Software Developer, Scrum Master, and Product Owner. I am not the only one, as teams worldwide are using estimates successfully in their work.

This raises the question, why on earth are some of the key #NoEstimates proponents knowingly repeating false claims that 'estimates never work'?

## Why are #NoEstimates proponents knowingly making false claims?
Now, this is an interesting question. In one part, it has to do with spreading the #NoEstimates idea, selling books, and related consultancy services. Another factor has a darker side, as many are trapped into believing the false claims and take up the harmful and aggressive [black and white stance on estimates](https://smartguess.is/blog/black-and-white-noestimates-stance-considered-harmful/) wasting a lot of time in unproductive arguments and causing polarization in our community.

## What's next?
In the next post, we examine another fallacy often used by #NoEstimates proponents to support the same claim. Read more in our deep dive on the [#NoEstimates straw man fallacy.](/blog/no-estimates-straw-man-fallacy/)

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Debunking the Claim That Estimates Never Work in Agile

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Why the ‘Estimates Never Work’ Claim Fails to Hold Up

#NoEstimates

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