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Explore Smart Guess's edge over traditional tools. Enjoy seamless user experience, one-click planning poker, versatility, and high security. Upgrade your project's story estimation with Smart Guess.

Smart Guess can be used from within the Jira Backlog

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## 2. Stop wasting time on tasks of no value
Traditional planning poker tools require a setup for every refinement session, eating into valuable time that could be spent on tasks of substance. In contrast, Smart Guess requires No-setup, as teams initiate Planning Poker refinement discussions directly from the Jira backlog.

### Key points:
- **No setup.** Teams start refinement without repetitive setup, saving time and increasing productivity. 
- **Saves money.** [Learn how 1 minute saved during a refinement pays back $14.000 / year](/blog/learn-how-dev-team-of-200-can-save-more-than-USD-14k-every-year-with-smart-guess/) for a 200-member development organization. Smart Guess saves so much more than one minute and does it fifty-two weeks a year, every year.
- **Efficient.** 'Smart Guess is not only the most efficient but the best app we've used.', customer review.

## 3. Covering all your estimation needs
Unlike many Planning poker tools that typically offer only one estimation method, Smart Guess covers all your estimation needs. It incorporates Planning Poker, asynchronous Planning Poker, and Bucket Estimation.

### Key points:
- **Async. Planning Poker.** 'The most efficient app for asynchronous Planning Poker', customer review. 
- **Planning Poker.** 'After trying many planning estimation tools in Jira, we landed on Smart Guess.', customer review 
- **Bucket Estimates.** Relative estimates, at their best. Simply ask, is the story bigger or smaller than 3, 5, or 8? With Smart Guess you simply drag and drop, and that's it.



Silent Estimation by Smart Guess allows teams to estimate large number of stories faster

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## 4. Security and Reliability 
Unlike most other providers who host their own infrastructure. Smart Guess is built on Atlassian Forge, the latest development platform created to meet the highest Security and Reliability demands customers set. The Forge platform provides built-in security and Atlassian-hosted infrastructure. So if you trust Atlassian Jira Cloud with tools and data critical for your operation, you already trust the platform Smart Guess is using. Peace of mind for you.

### Key points: 
- **Hosted by Atlassian.** Smart Guess customer data is hosted and operated by Atlassian. 
- **Built for the future.** Atlassian built the Forge platform for the future: 
> "A large reason why we are building Forge is to address security, trust, and compliance requirements in our customer's journey to the cloud. ", Daniel Winter-Wijntjes, Atlassian Engineering Manager. 

In essence, Smart Guess isn't just another story point estimation tool; it's a solution built with user satisfaction and convenience. The frustration users reported with traditional tools inspired us at Smart Guess. 

Try it out and tell us what you think because we love connecting with users to understand how to improve further.

'Best Story Estimation app in Jira': Why Users Love Smart Guess

Björn Brynjar Jónsson

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Learn how to run asynchronous planning poker with your remote team using SmartGuess. Our step-by-step guide simplifies the process and boosts productivity for effective agile planning. Try it today!

EstimatedBy field can now viewed in the Jira Backlog when configured correctly

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The team must provide estimates beforehand, or everyone's time reviewing the stories and estimating before the meeting is wasted. In Smart Guess, this information is readily available in the Jira Backlog by adding the "Estimated By" custom field to the Card Layout. Check out the following post on how this is set up: [See who has given an estimate immediately when looking at your backlog](https://smartguess.is/blog/see-who-has-given-an-estimate-when-using-asynchronous-planning-poker/).

2. **Review each story together** - When all estimates are in place, one click to share estimates - will bring up the following screen  






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* Share estimates with the team
* Discuss the differences
* Refine the story, define what you will do / not do
* Re-Estimate if needed
* Decide on the estimate

3. **Repeat until all stores have been refined**


## "The most efficient App for Asynchronous estimates"
Frederik Schottey, Founder & CEO at www.oakfields.io, [said in a review that Smart Guess was](https://marketplace.atlassian.com/apps/1225496/smart-guess-for-planning-poker-for-jira-cloud?hosting=cloud&tab=reviews):

> "The most efficient app we could find for doing asynchronous estimations. While other apps send you off to specific 'estimation' pages, Smart Guess allows you to do the entire estimation process right from the issue. Making the entire estimation process lightweight & intuitive, not yet another task team members have to complete." 


How to run the most efficient Asynchronous Planning Poker?

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Switching to Jira Cloud? Discover why Smart Guess is the ideal alternative for Scrum Poker for Jira Server. It offers one-click estimates, covers all estimation methods, and is built on the secure Atlassian Forge platform. Make your transition seamless, straightforward, and secure with Smart Guess.

## Covering all your estimation needs
Unlike many Planning poker tools that typically offer only one estimation method, Smart Guess covers all your estimation needs. It incorporates Planning Poker, asynchronous Planning Poker, and Bucket Estimation.

- Async. Planning Poker. 'The most efficient app for asynchronous Planning Poker', a customer review.
- Planning Poker. 'After trying many planning estimation tools in Jira, we landed on Smart Guess.', a customer review.
- Bucket Estimates. Relative estimates, at their best. Ask, is the story bigger or smaller than 3, 5, or 8? With Smart Guess, you simply drag and drop, and that's it.



## Comparing multiple tools, only one stands out
It's one thing to claim effectiveness and another to prove it. A customer moving to Smart Guess from Scrum Poker for Jira candidly shared,
>  "We trialed Smart Guess and many other alternatives across several refinement sessions until we found one we were happy with." 

It speaks volumes about Smart Guess, which emerged as the preferred choice after multiple trials - including the traditional tools with many thousand installs.

## Security and Reliability
Unlike most other providers who host their infrastructure, Smart Guess is built on Atlassian Forge. Forge is the latest development platform created to meet customers' highest Security and Reliability demands. The Forge platform provides built-in security and Atlassian-hosted infrastructure. So, if you trust Atlassian Jira Cloud with tools and data critical for your operation, you already trust the platform Smart Guess is using—peace of mind for you.


# In summary
Smart Guess offers a seamless, straightforward, secure, and reliable solution for teams looking to transition from Scrum Poker for Jira Server. It ensures that the primary focus remains on refining and scoring stories without the unnecessary complexities traditional tools mandate. 

Looking for a Scrum Poker for Jira alternative on Jira Cloud?

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Agile Planning with relative estimates is tricky. One-to-one mapping between story points and time doesn't exist. Learn how converting story points to time duration is measured based on past performance. As with any performance, your team's performance can decline and improve, and you have an impact. Learn what factors negatively impact your team's performance and how to convert story points to a time duration. 



## Coming back to the initial questions:
### 1. Why can't we negotiate and decide on the ratio between hours and story points?
The ratio is calculated based on a team's sprint velocity, i.e., completed stories from previous sprints. Hence every team will have a different velocity, and this is normal. Furthermore, the ratio is never fully fixed in stone. It will gradually improve or decline depending on various factors such as: 

**Factors negatively impacting the team's velocity**
1. Team is attempting to deliver on an impossible deadline - cutting corners
2. Level of codebase technical debt is high 
3. Automated testing is in a bad shape
4. Team lacks knowledge about parts of the codebase they're working with
5. Team lacks knowledge about the technology stack they are working with
6. New team members don't get enough support from existing team members to get quickly up-to-speed 

**Factors positively impacting the team's velocity**
1. Team is working on a sustainable pace - constantly removing obstacles holding them back 
2. Technical debt is actively being reduced
3. Automated testing is improving - problems are found and fixed early
4. Team is gaining knowledge about parts of the codebase they are working with
5. Team is gaining knowledge about the technology stack they are working with 
6. New team members get good help when starting and get quickly up-to-speed 
 
### 2. Why isn't there a one-to-one mapping between story points and hours?
For the reasons mentioned above, there doesn't exist a mapping table mapping story points to hours. It depends on each team's context, experience, and current velocity.


### 3. How do we convert story points and velocity into duration?
Once information about a team's velocity and story estimates are in place for upcoming work, we can answer questions such as: 
1. When can you deliver feature A?
2. What can you deliver before the end of next quarter?
3. Can we get feature A delivered before the end of next quarter?

Suppose the team's velocity is 30 story points every two-week sprint. Then in four weeks, they will complete approx. 60, in six weeks, 90, and so on. If the team has five members and one member is away during a sprint, the velocity drops to approximately 4/5 * 30 = 24. 

Now we can answer questions about when and for how long the work we are planning will likely take: 

#### Question 1: When can you deliver feature A? 
This is a fixed scope, variable time question. During development, the team's velocity will always vary a bit. The green and red lines show variability in how many story points are completed in each sprint.

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So looking at the image, having a fixed scope question, when a certain number of story points are delivered, the answer is most likely in the following range:
- x gives the best-case scenario 
- y gives the worst-case scenario 

#### Question 2: What can you deliver before the end of next quarter?
This is a fixed-time, variable-scope question. Looking at the image, having a fixed time question, we can see that, most likely, the team will
- Complete all stories below x
- Some of the stories between y and x
- None of the stories above z

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### Question 3: Can we get feature A delivered before the end of next quarter?
This is a fixed-time, fixed-scope question. Looking at the image, if x is not within the green and red lines, the team will most likely be unable to deliver feature A in time.

In this case, the discussion that needs to occur is how to proceed. There are only three real options:
- Give the team more time
- Cut scope
- Or a combination of both

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## Watch Henrik Kniberg explain these concepts
Henrik Kniberg covers these concepts in his excellent video "Agile Product Ownership in a nutshell." The discussion on estimates starts at 11:28. 

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**About Smart Guess** 

*We help teams educate stakeholders by providing actionable answers to common misconceptions about estimates. So more teams can use estimates to their advantage, and fewer are held accountable for delivering on impossible deadlines.* 

Like, retweet, or share your thoughts on Twitter about this topic.


Converting story points to hours - how does it work?

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"Discover the efficient way teams run their refinement meetings using Smart Guess and why users love running Planning Poker directly from the Jira Backlog. Explore a one-click, intuitive, lightweight process that eliminates setup, session creation, and extra steps waisting your time"

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### 2. Use the Jira Backlog - Issue Panel during refinement to discuss each story and note decisions

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### 3. Use Planning Poker by Smart Guess to estimate stories with one click

That's it! For a more detailed breakdown, check out [the documentation](https://smartguess.atlassian.net/wiki/spaces/SOL/pages/743931905/Running+your+refinement+meeting+using+Planning+Poker) - 2 min read.

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## So what - why is this important?
One-click Planning Poker, compared to traditional tools, means there is:
1. No setup
2. No estimation session created
3. No stories to pick out for the session
4. No extra screens to navigate to
5. No inviting the team
6. No link sharing 
7. No naming the planning session
8. No complexity in saving the estimates
...

Just Intuitive, Lightweight, One-Click Planning Poker. That's why users ❤️ running their refinement meetings using Smart Guess.

Run your Planning Poker refinement this way

Explore the efficient Silent Grouping method introduced by Ken Power for Agile user story estimation. Learn when to use Silent Grouping vs. Planning Poker for effective backlog refinement and sprint planning. This article also guides you through running your first Silent Grouping meeting with your team using Smart Guess.

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## When to use Planning Poker?
With Planning Poker, the discussions that take place are ideal for assessing what to implement during upcoming sprints. Because before starting work on a user story, a common understanding of what you plan on having ready when you finish the sprint is essential. For this reason, you must discuss and decide how to implement the user story and how much time to invest. There are always tradeoffs where the team and, ultimately, the product manager need to weigh the value vs. the cost of different implementation options, such as:
- Simple and quick - 2 story points 
- Better, yet not perfect - 5 story points
- Fancy pansy - 20 story points

The Planning Poker method clarifies how much effort the product manager is willing to invest relative to everything the team can spend their time on. So many teams use Planning Poker during refinement meetings to clarify what to build during the upcoming sprint(s).



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## Balancing how deep your story discussion goes
So it’s a balancing act of how deep you go with each story discussion. Stories you will soon start working on are smaller and need more clarity and a deeper discussion. Planning Poker is the perfect tool for this case.

However, for stories further away on the backlog that will be further broken down later, focus the discussion on what you know today and note down key areas of uncertainty to clarify. Bucket Estimation is perfect for this case.  


## How to run your first Silent Grouping meeting with your team?

Here is an article that walks you through the step-by-step process of [how to run your first Silent Grouping meeting with your team](https://smartguess.atlassian.net/wiki/spaces/SOL/pages/738656257/Silent+Estimation).

Silent Grouping method for Smart Guess users

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Discover why story points are a better alternative to estimating time in agile development. This post explains the benefits of using story points for more accurate planning and forecasting. Learn more about this popular estimation technique today!"


### Critical problems with time estimates
#### Problem: It depends on who does the work, how long it will take 
You will find experienced team members and less experienced members in any team. It will take less time for a team member to implement changes on a well-known codebase. Similarly, it will take more time to implement changes that depend on an unfamiliar API. Each team member has a different level of knowledge and experience. So when team members discuss time estimates, they struggle to agree on an estimate when each member is thinking 
> 'how long will it take 'me' to implement this story?'

We need a way to move away from this line of thinking because team members' knowledge and experience are different.

#### Problem: Uncertainty not actively tracked
When team members discuss a story and how they will get it done, they base their estimate on what they know. Some overlook what they can't see and give a best-case estimate. Some will assess uncertainty and include additional time to account for it. The big challenge is deciding how much time to account for the uncertainty. Because you only know how long it takes when the work is complete. So while uncertainty isn't being assessed, measured, and used to forecast progress, your team will struggle with estimates.

There is a solution to these problems. The answer is to use story points, relative estimates, and the team's velocity. Let's discuss how it works. 



### How do story points, relative estimates, and team's velocity solve these problems? 

#### Solving: It depends on who does the work, how long it will take 

Relative estimates solve the first problem. Instead of asking: 'how long will this story take me?' Compare each story you estimate and ask, is this story the same size as other stories that are:
- one-story point?
- two-story points?
- three-story points?

..and so on. Research shows we are better at estimating effort using relative estimates. And by using the Fibonacci sequence as the scale, rather than continuous scale such as time, the difference between each item makes it relatively easy to find a place for each story. Then end of each sprint, track the total number of story points the team completed. That's the team's velocity. The team's velocity will be approximately the same from one sprint to another, given team members are using a similar time each sprint and story uncertainity is similar to previous sprints. Each sprint has a fixed timeframe allowing teams to [convert story points to delivery time](https://smartguess.is/blog/story-points-to-time/) as needed. 

#### Solving: Uncertainty not actively tracked
We solve the second problem by *assessing*,  *measuring*, and *forecasting* progress based on actual data. We *assess* uncertainty when assigning story points. For example, when two stories are of a similar size, while one involves an API the team is unfamiliar with, it will get a higher story point estimate. Secondly, by *measuring* the team's velocity every sprint, we collect data on backlog items completed involving risk and uncertainty. By collecting data on the team's velocity, we measure story progress and the actual time uncertainty has taken. Third, we *forecast* progress using the average velocity of past sprints, allowing us to answer questions such as [covered here](https://smartguess.is/blog/story-points-to-time/):

1. When can you deliver feature A?
2. What can you deliver before the end of next quarter?
3. Can we get features A delivered before the end of next quarter?

The forecast will work while past velocity is a good indicator of future velocity.  Naturally, this will break down if part of the team frequently moves to other urgent work such as production issues, which is a topic for another post.

Story points: Why not use time?

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Are you dealing with underestimation in agile development? In this post, Smart Guess shares valuable insights to help teams address this common issue. Today, learn how to identify and overcome underestimation in your agile planning process with our expert tips and techniques!


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Someone saying 'No, it's less effort than that!'? 

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Are story points estimated by the product owner or the development team?
The short answer is the development team and there is a reason for that.

Another related question is should the Product Owner, Scrum master, or anyone else outside of the team provide an estimate? 
The short answer is no, they should not and there is a reason for that.

Are story points estimated by the product owner or the dev-team?

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Are you tired of the heated and unproductive debate about Estimates vs. #NoEstimates? Today, it is clear polarization and division have overtaken the discussion. This is sad because #NoEstimates and Estimates work brilliantly when used correctly. So there is no reason for the heated arguments among Agile development enthusiasts. Smart Guess Agile expert and teacher review the scene, suggest moving beyond propaganda, and discuss avoiding the NoEstimates trap. 

You can find hundreds of similar tweets by searching for ['#NoEstimates estimator'](https://twitter.com/search?q=%23NoEstimates%20estimator&src=typed_query) on Twitter. 

## 3. Personal attacks rather than discussing the case
Another fallacy frequently used is attacking the person rather than discussing the case, i.e. [Ad hominem fallacy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ad_hominem). 


## 4. Research shows repeating false statements make people believe
As covered in the posts a. [Debunking 'estimates never work'](https://smartguess.is/blog/debunking-estimates-never-work/) and b. [#NoEstimates straw man fallacy](https://smartguess.is/blog/no-estimates-straw-man-fallacy/). Few key #NoEstimates proponents are knowingly repeating false claims that 'estimates don't work.' In the following Wikipedia article on [Illusory truth effect](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Illusory_truth_effect), it says that:
> researchers discovered that familiarity can overpower rationality and that repetitively hearing a certain fact is wrong can affect the hearer's beliefs.

There are hundreds (likely thousands) of tweets under the #NoEstimates hashtag on Twitter, claiming *"estimates never work"* or/and using the *"straw man fallacy"*. We see in these examples proponents are *"selectively presenting facts to encourage a particular synthesis or perception"*, [Wikipedia definition of Propaganda](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Propaganda).


## In summary - is Propaganda used to advance #NoEstimates?
Based on the facts presented and methods used, the content manufactured to provoke and maintain the fire and the actions of the few proponents behind this. It is clear, quoting [Wikipedia's definition of Propaganda](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Propaganda), we are seeing Propaganda used to:

> *" influence an audience and further an agenda"*

## Why is Propaganda used?
Why do we see Propaganda used to further the #NoEstimates agenda? 

### Selling books and services
It happens to be the case the few key proponents using these methods are selling books and services around the #NoEstimates theme - so this might have an impact. 

### Is the world a better place without estimates?
Another factor is the *belief the world might be a better place without estimates*. To make this claim, #NoEstimates proponents have created many posts, some of which contain the phrase ["#NoEstimates death march"](https://twitter.com/search?q=%23NoEstimates%20death%20march&src=typed_query&f=top).

I might need another post to explain the problem with this argument. In short, this is like saying we should ban knives, credit cards, etc. Because they can be used with negative consequences, let's keep in mind the tools themselves have no "agenda." It's always in the hands of the person using the tool to use it wisely. Therefore you can't claim tools such as knives, credit cards, or estimates are always bad. People making this claim are fighting the wrong battle.

Are we heading towards a future where we can't decide what tools or methods we use? 

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## Moving beyond Propaganda
I think our future lies beyond the authoritarian world current propaganda is bringing us. While tools provide value, people will continue using them. Both estimates and no estimates provide value when used correctly. 

Shouldn't people have the freedom to decide what method or tools they use without ridicule, personal attacks, provocative false claims, and random confrontations?

## You shape the future
Each and everyone in the industry can make an impact. You have a choice, take the:
- **Blue pill** - If you want the #NoEstimates Propaganda to continue - do nothing. 
- **Red pill** - If you want the #NoEstimates Propaganda to stop - then read on
 
Share this post when you see the following behaviors: 
1. People repeating false claims, using polarizing content to grab attention 
2. People discriminating against others for using estimates
3. Personal attacks rather than discussing the case. 

As a last resort, stop following people showing behavior you don't want to see.

 It's that simple, until next time, cheers!

Like, retweet, or share your thoughts on Twitter about this topic.

**About Smart Guess** 
*We help teams educate stakeholders by providing actionable answers to common misconceptions about estimates. So more teams can use estimates to their advantage, and fewer are held accountable for delivering on impossible deadlines.*

Is propaganda used to further the #NoEstimates agenda?

Customer review from Frederick Founder &CEO @ Oakfields.io

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The team at Oakfields.io identifies Smart Guess as "The most efficient app we could find for doing asynchronous estimations."

They just switched over from one of the most widely used apps on the market. Find out why teams are making the switch.

'The most efficient app for asynchronous estimations'

"Want to see who has given an estimate when running asynchronous planning poker? SmartGuess has you covered. Our customers have transparency and accountability in agile estimation, helping them work efficiently and effectively. See how it's done!"

How the information is currently displayed will be improved by Atlassian. As the image shows, now full names are written out as a comma-separated list, which takes up a lot of space. Once Atlassian has improved on this, the field will be displayed like it is now being displayed within the Jira Issue view: 

EstimateBy field can be found in the Jira Issue View

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#### How it's set up for Company Manged projects
In three steps:
1. Open Board settings
2. Open Card layout
3. Add the 'Estimated by' field to the Backlog - view

Like so:

EstimateBy field can be added using the Jira Board settings

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### Problem: 'Estimated by' is not yet available at a glance in Team managed projects
For Team managed projects, this is not yet possible. However, this is an improvement planned by Atlassian. 

### Solution: Use Issue Search to access the status of estimates given quickly:
In the meantime, here is how you set up a JQL query to access this information efficiently.
1. New issue field "Estimated by" automatically lists what users have provided an estimate in Smart Guess
2. Create a simple issues search for your backlog using JQL
-  "project = TEST order by rank"
-  Replace the project key with your project 
3. Add the column "Estimated by" to screen
4. Save your search for quick reference

Keeping this issue filter close by, with one click, you see the status of estimates given at a glance:

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### Updating to the latest version
To update to the latest version:
1. Click "Apps -> Manage Apps" from the Jira top navigation
2. Find "Smart Guess" in the list and click  "Update." 

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